$150B Tariff Reckoning Looms, Google Pushes Gemini Into Gmail, Mining Giants Circle, and OpenAI Enters Health

9th January 2025

A looming Supreme Court ruling could trigger a $150 billion refund battle as importers brace for the possible collapse of Donald Trump’s emergency tariffs. In Big Tech, Google is quietly switching on Gemini-powered features inside Gmail, forcing users to opt out as it accelerates its AI-first strategy. In commodities, Rio Tinto and Glencore are back at the table, reviving talks that could create the world’s largest mining company just as demand for critical metals surges. And in artificial intelligence, OpenAI is pushing deeper into healthcare, launching ChatGPT Health to connect medical records and wellness apps while promising strict data separation. All this and more in today’s Read It And Eat!

Major Headlines 

• Importers brace for $150 billion tariff refund fight if Trump loses at Supreme Court

Company executives, customs brokers and trade lawyers are bracing for a Supreme Court ruling on the legality of President Donald Trump's sweeping global tariffs, and a potential fight over obtaining perhaps $150 billion in refunds from the U.S. government for duties already paid by importers if he loses.

Anticipation that the court will strike down the tariffs Trump imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 rose after the November arguments in the case when conservative and liberal justices alike voiced skepticism about whether that law gave him the authority to levy the duties. The court is expected to issue rulings on Friday but, as is customary, has not said what case or cases will be acted upon.

Some companies anticipate that even if the court invalidates Trump's tariffs, the Republican president will not make it easy for them to get refunds. "It's not in the government's DNA to give back money. And Trump would not want to give back money," said Jim Estill, CEO of Danby Appliances, a Canadian company that sells small refrigerators, microwaves and laundry equipment through big-box stores including Home Depot. Trump is the first president to invoke the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA, to impose tariffs. This law historically had been used for imposing sanctions on U.S. adversaries or freezing their assets. Reuters

• Google is unleashing Gemini AI features on Gmail. Users will have to opt out

Google is adding more Gemini features to Gmail, providing upgrades like artificial intelligence-generated summaries of email threads, the company said Thursday. The company said its latest updates will be rolled out in phases, and some features will be turned on by default in inboxes, meaning users who don’t want them will have to opt out.“When you open an email with dozens of replies, Gmail synthesizes the entire conversation into a concise summary of key points,” Google wrote in a blog post.

The company said AI Overviews, which show up at the top of search results, are also being added to Gmail. The updates come as Google embeds its Gemini AI technology across its wide portfolio of consumer products. Google is counting on its massive customer base to provide an advantage as the company takes on the likes of OpenAI, Anthropic and others in the booming generative AI market. Google says Gmail now has more than 3 billion users.

Last year, Google’s Gemini integration in Gmail allowed users to do things like search messages, draft emails from prompts, improve grammar and generate custom responses. One of the new features is “Suggested Replies,” which Google says uses the context of a user’s emails to create one-click responses. It’s an update to a prior tool called “Smart Replies.” The company is also upgrading a proofreading option for checking grammar and making messages more concise. CNBC

• Rio Tinto in talks to buy Glencore to form world's biggest miner

Rio Tinto (RIO.L), is in early talks to buy Glencore (GLEN.L), the companies said, in what could create the world's largest mining company with a combined market value of nearly $207 billion.

Global miners are racing to bulk up in metals including copper, set to benefit from the energy transition and artificial intelligence demand. That has sparked a wave of project expansions and takeover attempts, including the pending merger of Anglo American (AAL.L), and Teck Resources (TECKb.TO) to create a copper-focused industry heavyweight.

Rio Tinto and Glencore revealed little on what a tie-up might look like, including which assets could be included, in what is the second round of talks in just over a year between the two after Glencore approached Rio Tinto in late 2024 for a deal that did not ultimately proceed. The companies said late on Thursday the expectation was it would involve an all-share buyout of "some or all" of Glencore by Rio Tinto. They did not disclose whether there would be a takeover premium or who would manage the combined company if the world's largest-ever mining deal was completed. Reuters

• OpenAI launches ChatGPT Health to connect user medical records, wellness apps

OpenAI on Wednesday announced ChatGPT Health, which will allow users to securely connect their medical records and wellness apps to the artificial intelligence chatbot. ChatGPT Health is not intended for diagnosis and treatment, and it's not supposed to replace medical care, OpenAI said. Rather, the experience is supposed to help users navigate everyday questions, and it aims to make ChatGPT's responses more relevant by grounding them in a user's own health information.

"ChatGPT Health is another step toward turning ChatGPT into a personal super-assistant that can support you with information and tools to achieve your goals across any part of your life," Fidji Simo, CEO of applications at OpenAI, wrote in a post on Substack. OpenAI said ChatGPT Health has its own dedicated space within the chatbot, so all of those files, conversations and connected apps are stored separately from other chats. Information and memories from ChatGPT Health will not flow outside of that space, and those conversations will not be used to train OpenAI's foundation models, the company said. 

The startup has partnered with b.well, which provides the health data connectivity infrastructure that will allow users to share their medical records with ChatGPT Health. Users will also be able to connect to AppleHealth, MyFitnessPal, Weight Watchers, the lab testing startup Function and other data. Services can be connected from tools or apps in settings. ChatGPT Health was developed in "close collaboration" with physicians, OpenAI said. CNBC

Minor Headlines 

• Nvidia requires full upfront payment for H200 chips in China, sources say Reuters

  
  

• GM to take $6 billion writedown on EV pullback Reuters

  
  

• The Trump Administration killed a draft proposal to halve alcohol limits, sources say Reuters

  
  

• OpenAI to acquire the team behind executive coaching AI tool Convogo TechCrunch 

  
  

• Five states sue over Trump freezing $10 billion in childcare, family assistance funds  Reuters

  
  

• Apollo searches for new European head as it steps up dealmaking in the region Financial Times 

  
  

• DeepSeek rival’s shares jump 87% in China AI listings boom Financial Times

  
  

• JD Vance defends killing of anti-ICE protester in Minneapolis Financial Times 

Earning Headlines 

Consumer Staples

• Constellation Brands beat Q3 earnings and revenue estimates despite a YoY sales decline driven by wine and spirits divestitures (YH) 

Investment Banking

• Jefferies missed on Q4 earnings but beat revenue estimates as a 20% YoY surge in IB fees and strong underwriting partly offset a $30M pre-tax loss tied to First Brands (BBG)