High Stakes and Heavy Bets: From Washington to Wall Street

3rd July 2025

Senate Republicans have advanced President Trump’s sweeping tax and spending bill, which includes extending tax cuts, slashing social programs, and raising the debt ceiling by $5 trillion. Former OpenAI board member Helen Toner questioned Meta’s massive AI hiring push, saying internal dysfunction and competition from Chinese rivals could hinder its progress. Nippon Steel is securing $5.6 billion in loans to help fund its $14.9 billion U.S. Steel acquisition and manage rising debt levels. Tesla reported a 13.5% drop in quarterly deliveries, raising concerns about continued sales declines amid political tensions and delayed new models. While some signs of recovery are emerging in China and Europe, the company faces a tough road ahead to meet its annual targets. All in today’s read-and-eat-it !

Senate Republicans Push Trump’s Sweeping Tax Bill Toward Final Vote

House Republicans have moved President Trump’s sweeping tax and spending bill one step closer to becoming law, clearing a key procedural vote early Thursday morning. After a marathon day of closed-door negotiations, lawmakers advanced the bill in a narrow 219–213 vote around 3:30 a.m., setting up a final vote just two hours later. Speaker Mike Johnson praised Trump for personally calling holdouts overnight, saying there “couldn’t be a more engaged and involved president.”

The bill includes a wide range of Trump’s top domestic priorities: extending his 2017 tax cuts, increasing funding for immigration enforcement, slashing green energy incentives, and cutting key social programs like Medicaid and food assistance. It would also raise the debt ceiling by $5 trillion, a move meant to avoid a default later this year. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates the plan would add $3.4 trillion to the national debt over the next decade.

Democrats remain firmly opposed, arguing the bill favors the wealthy and undermines critical safety-net programs. “This bill is catastrophic. It is not policy it is punishment,” said Representative Jim McGovern during House floor debate. The CBO warned nearly 12 million Americans could lose health coverage under the proposed Medicaid cuts. Despite internal GOP tensions, Republicans have largely avoided breaking ranks with Trump since his return to the White House in January.

With a razor-thin 220–212 majority, House Republicans can only afford to lose three votes. Any changes to the bill would send it back to the Senate where it barely passed earlier this week making it difficult to meet Trump’s July 4 deadline. For now, House leadership is betting on unity to push the bill through and deliver a major legislative win for the president. Bloomberg 

Former OpenAI Board Member Questions Meta’s AI Hiring Strategy

Meta’s aggressive push to hire top AI talent might not be the game-changer it hopes for, says Helen Toner, former OpenAI board member and current director of strategy at Georgetown’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology. In an interview with Bloomberg TV, Toner noted that while Meta is spending tens of millions to lure researchers from companies like OpenAI, a big budget alone won’t fix deeper organizational issues. “The question is, can it turn around Meta’s fortunes and turn it into a real juggernaut?” she said. “It’ll be difficult there’s a lot of organizational politics at play.”

Meta recently launched a new Superintelligence group and stepped up hiring efforts, but Toner pointed out the company has struggled with internal dysfunction, especially when compared to rising competition from China’s DeepSeek. “The fact that DeepSeek was outshining them was really not a good look,” she added, referencing the Chinese firm’s strong open-source performance that caught Silicon Valley’s attention.

CEO Mark Zuckerberg is investing heavily in AI, but Toner questions whether Meta can move fast enough to keep top engineers on board. “Can Meta convince them that they are moving fast enough?” she asked, noting that success in AI requires not just money, but speed, clarity of vision, and a supportive environment for researchers.

Toner, who played a key role in the 2023 boardroom drama that briefly ousted OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, has since focused her work on the global AI race between the U.S. and China. That race, she says, is no longer confined to borders. Companies like OpenAI, Alibaba, DeepSeek, and Zhipu AI are now competing for global partnerships from South Korea’s Kakao integrating ChatGPT into its platforms, to Alibaba expanding data centers across Southeast Asia. Financial Times 

Nippon Steel Secures $5.6 Billion in Loans to Back U.S. Steel Deal

Nippon Steel is lining up ¥800 billion (about $5.6 billion) in subordinated loans to help fund its $14.9 billion acquisition of U.S. Steel and to refinance some existing debt. Japan’s largest steelmaker said the new financing will support its previously arranged ¥2 trillion bridge loan for the deal and replace an older subordinated loan.

Specifically, ¥500 billion will go toward repaying part of the bridge loan, with backing from Japan’s three megabanks MUFG, SMFG, and Mizuho alongside Sumitomo Mitsui Trust and the Development Bank of Japan. The remaining ¥300 billion will refinance a previous ¥450 billion loan and is expected to be finalized with four banks on July 22.

The company says it will cover the rest of the bridge loan about ¥1.5 trillion using a mix of funding strategies, depending on interest rates and market conditions. While Nippon Steel is considering additional capital-based financing, it emphasized that protecting earnings-per-share remains a key priority.

The acquisition has pushed Nippon Steel’s debt-to-equity ratio from 0.35 to around 0.8, but the company is aiming to bring that down to the 0.7 range by March 2026. It plans to do so through a mix of operating cash flow and asset sales, including the sale of its joint venture stake with ArcelorMittal, which helped clear regulatory hurdles for the U.S. Steel deal. Reuters 

Tesla Faces Uphill Climb After Another Delivery Dip

Tesla is staring down the possibility of another year of declining sales after posting a second consecutive drop in quarterly deliveries. The company is contending with a mix of challenges: CEO Elon Musk’s polarizing political views, a vehicle lineup that’s beginning to feel dated, and broader uncertainty around tariffs and electric vehicle incentives under potential U.S. policy changes. To avoid an annual decline, Tesla now needs to deliver over a million vehicles in the second half of the year  a target that some analysts say won’t be easy to hit.

Second-quarter deliveries fell 13.5% year-over-year to 384,122 vehicles, missing analyst expectations. That said, the number was up 14% from the first quarter, offering a glimmer of hope that the worst might be over. Investors welcomed the relatively smaller drop, with shares rising 4.5% helped in part by a modest rebound in China, where the refreshed Model Y is gaining traction. “It’s too early to celebrate, but any good news is a relief right now,” said Camelthorn Investments adviser Shawn Campbell.

Tesla is trying to boost demand through lower financing offers but has yet to launch the more affordable models it's been promising for years. A scaled-down Model Y was expected by mid-year, but reports now suggest production has been pushed back. Meanwhile, tensions between Musk and former President Trump over tax policy have only added to investor jitters, especially with the potential loss of key EV incentives and concerns around the future of Tesla’s much-hyped robotaxi plans.

Still, there are some bright spots. Sales in China picked up in June after an eight-month slide, and some European markets including Norway and Spain  also saw a bump, thanks in part to renewed interest in the Model Y. While Tesla still faces intense competition from nimble Chinese rivals like BYD, its premium brand image may give it just enough edge to stay in the game at least for now.

Minor Headlines 

•  U.S. Court Backs Dalinar’s $7.38 Billion Offer for Citgo’s Parent Company. Financial Times 

• June U.S. Job Growth Expected to Cool, Unemployment Likely to Edge Higher. Reuters 

• UK Unveils 10-Year Plan to Rescue Struggling NHS. Bloomberg   

• Indonesia to Ink $34 Billion Deal with U.S. Firms Ahead of Tariff Deadline, Minister Confirms. Bloomberg 

• UK’s Currys Posts Annual Profit Above Expectations. Bloomberg 

• Chesnara to Acquire HSBC Life UK in $355 Million Agreement. Reuters 

• Chip Design Software Stocks Climb as U.S. Eases Export Restrictions to China. CNN

• Meta Seeks $29 Billion in Private Credit to Expand AI Data Center Network. Financial Times 

Gen Z Word of the Day 

Catch These Hands

To start a fight. This term is generally used in a contentious matter.