Markets Brace for Fed Cut as TikTok Talks Drag On and ANZ Pays Record Fine

15th September 2025

It’s a week where money meets politics, and the central banks are in the driver’s seat. The Federal Reserve is expected to deliver its first rate cut since Trump’s return to the White House, kicking off a round of global policy moves from Canada to Japan that could shift borrowing costs for two-fifths of the world economy. Meanwhile, U.S. and Chinese officials are back at the table for trade talks in Spain as the TikTok ban deadline looms (and likely gets extended yet again). In Australia, ANZ has been hit with a record $160 million penalty over bond-market misconduct and customer abuses, while in London, Trump’s state visit is doubling as a stage for billion-dollar tech and energy deals. Even toys aren’t immune to volatility. Pop Mart just shed $13 billion as the Labubu craze cools. All this and more in today’s Read It And Eat!

Major Headlines

• The Fed will likely cut interest rates on Wednesday

  
  

The first US interest rate cut since Donald Trump became president again is likely to seize the spotlight in a week that will determine policy settings for half of the world’s 10 most-traded currencies. Starting with the Bank of Canada and then the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, shifting to the Bank of England the following day, and ending with the Bank of Japan, central banks may either adjust borrowing costs, prime investors for their intentions in year’s final quarter, or both.

By the end of the week, rates affecting two-fifths of the global economy, including four of the Group of Seven industrialized nations, will have been tweaked or reaffirmed. A US rate cut long sought by Trump’s White House is expected to feature prominently. The standoff over Fed policy, pitting Trump’s strident calls for lower borrowing costs against Chair Jerome Powell’s concerns about tariff-driven inflation, hangs over the meeting. Recent signs of weakening in the labor market have, however, given a green light for what most economists expect will be a quarter-point rate cut. Yahoo.Finance

• US and China hold second day of trade talks as TikTok deadline looms

US and Chinese officials are holding a second day of trade talks in Spain on Monday as the deadline looms for the Chinese owner of TikTok to find a buyer or face a ban in America.

The negotiations, led by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, are the latest attempt to end a trade war between the world's two biggest economies.

Top-level trade delegations from Beijing and Washington last met in July, when they struck a deal to extend their tariffs truce by another 90 days until 10 November. After initially calling for TikTok to be banned during his first term, Trump has reversed his stance on the popular video-sharing app and delayed the ban three times so far. Speaking to reporters on Sunday, Trump said: "We may let [TikTok] die. Or we may… I don't know. It depends. Up to China, it doesn't matter too much." It came as expectations grow that the deadline, which is due to expire on Wednesday, will be extended for a fourth time. Last month, Trump suggested that he would keep extending the deadline until a buyer for TikTok could be found and called national security and privacy concerns related to the app and its Chinese parent company ByteDance "highly overrated".

Trump was highly critical of TikTok during his first term in the White House but softened his position after he gained popularity on the app during the 2024 presidential election.

In August, The White House launched its official TikTok account. The app is one of the world's most widely-used social media platforms, with around 170 million users in the US.

During this week's talks, officials are also expected to lay the groundwork for a potential meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping as soon as October, when they are scheduled to attend a summit in South Korea. The tariffs truce between China and the US cut import taxes that had reached more than 100% on each other's goods. 

The extension gave them more time for negotiations about "unfair trade practices" and to address national security issues, the White House said. BBC

• Australia's ANZ to pay $160 million over bond deal, customer violations

ANZ Group (ANZ.AX), agreed to pay A$240 million ($159.5 million), the Australian corporate regulator's largest-ever penalties against a single entity, over systemic failures ranging from acting "unconscionably" in a government bond deal to charging dead customers. The penalties announced on Monday are a troubling milestone for Australia's fourth-largest bank, which last week announced 3,500 job cuts as new CEO Nuno Matos looks to improve profitability at a lender that already is required to hold more capital in reserve than its peers due in part to fallout from the bond deal.

Including Monday's announcement, ASIC has brought 11 civil penalty proceedings against ANZ since 2016, with total penalties exceeding A$310 million. ANZ has admitted allegations in each case, according to ASIC. ANZ Chair Paul O'Sullivan said the bank must make a significant change in the way it operates. "In reaching this settlement we are acknowledging that we let our customers down and I apologise unreservedly," he told analysts and reporters.  ANZ shares closed 0.6% lower on Monday, while the benchmark S&P/ASX200 (.AXJO), was down 0.13%. 

The latest settlement, requiring Federal Court approval, resolves five separate investigations across ANZ's Australian Markets and Retail divisions. Central to the violations was ANZ's conduct during a A$14 billion, government bond issuance on April 19, 2023. Instead of trading gradually to limit market impact, ANZ sold significant volumes of 10-year Australian bond futures around pricing time, placing "undue downward pressure" on bond prices while assisting the Australian Office of Financial Management's debt issuance, ASIC said. 

ANZ's trading behaviour in the 45 minutes before the bond was due to formally price pushed bond futures pricing down 2 basis points, which cost the government about A$26 million, the regulator said. "ANZ was in a trusted position and its conduct had the potential to reduce the amount of funding available to the government," Longo said, noting the funds were used for services such as the nation's health and education systems. ANZ said it did not agree on the cost to the government but offered to repay the A$10 million it would have earned for its role on the deal. TechCrunch 

• UK and US to announce tech, energy deals during Trump visit

The United States and Britain will announce agreements on technology and civil nuclear energy during U.S. President Donald Trump's unprecedented second state visit this week, as the UK hopes to finalise steel tariffs under a much-vaunted trade deal. Trump and his wife, Melania, will be treated to a display of British royal pageantry during their visit on Wednesday, including a carriage tour, a state banquet, a flypast by military aircraft and a gun salute.

The British government hopes the soft power of the royals will appeal to Trump as it seeks tighter defence, security and energy ties with Washington, having already secured a favourable tariff deal. Prime Minister Keir Starmer will host Trump at his Chequers country residence on Thursday to discuss working more closely together, on issues like Ukraine, and with the aim of finalising promised lower tariffs for steel and aluminium. A spokesperson for Starmer said the leaders would sign "a world-leading tech partnership". The two countries will also sign multi-billion dollar deals to develop small nuclear projects which could in some cases help power new AI data centres.

"The UK-U.S. relationship is the strongest in the world," Starmer's spokesperson told reporters. "This week we are delivering a step change in that relationship." The British leader, a technocrat and a self-proclaimed socialist, and Trump, a proudly unpredictable politician who has pushed the Republican Party further to the right, have overcome their differences to develop a good working relationship. Starmer was the first world leader to agree an economic deal with Trump on reducing his global tariffs. Under that agreement, the United States said it planned to reduce tariffs on imports of cars and aluminium and steel. While details on car tariffs were agreed in June, the deal for steel and aluminium is yet to be finalised. Reuters

• Fading Labubu Frenzy Wipes $13 Billion From Pop Mart Shares

  
  

The cooling frenzy over Labubu dolls has brought one of the world’s biggest stock rallies to a halt, erasing billions of dollars from the value of Pop Mart International Group Ltd. The Chinese toymaker’s stock slumped nearly 9% in Hong Kong, the most since April, after JPMorgan Chase & Co. downgraded the firm due to weak catalysts and an unattractive valuation. Despite the slide, Pop Mart is still up more than 180% year-to-date and remains the top performer on the Hang Seng Index.

“We believe the valuation is priced for perfection and any small fundamental miss/negative media reports (i.e. resale price drop and third-party licensing) might drive underperformance,” JPMorgan analysts including Kevin Yin wrote in a note. The Wall Street bank’s downgrade comes amid signs that the hype surrounding Pop Mart’s designer toys is fading. The premium once commanded by Labubus — the firm’s rabbit-eared plush dolls sought by celebrities from BlackPink’s Lisa to David Beckham — is narrowing in secondary markets in China.

Pop Mart’s stock too is witnessing a sharp draw-down, having lost almost $13 billion  — or roughly a quarter of its value — since reaching a record on Aug. 26. It more than quadrupled in 2024 as Labubu sparked a craze across many Asian markets, and was added to the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index this month. Pop Mart’s shares are trading at nearly 23 times their 12-month forward earnings estimate. Pop Mart is planning to release animation and a new version of Labubu before Christmas and is also seeking to launch interactive toys, JPMorgan analysts noted. Those catalysts, however, have “low visibility,” the analysts said. They downgraded the stock to neutral from overweight, lowering their December 2026 price target by 25% to HK$300. Bloomberg 

Minor Headlines 

• Trump arrives London in state visit New York Times 

  
  

• New iPhones and other Apple products will be available on Friday TechCrunch 

  
  

• New York Gov. Kathy Hochul endorsed Zohran Mamdani for NYC mayor, after he vowed to apologize for calling the NYPD racist in 2020 CNBC

  
  

• Elon Musk’s xAI laid off at least 500 workers responsible for training its Grok chatbot, according to Business Insider Reuters

  
  

• Citigroup has budgeted £1.1bn Yahoo.Finance

  
  

• Via raises $492.9M in IPO, and German automakers go on the offensive  TechCrunch 

  
  

• Hike, once a unicorn, shuts down as India cracks down on real-money gaming TechCrunch 

  
  

• Swatch to hike prices in US after tariffs, CEO says TechCrunch